Acute respiratory illness: forecast for Germany
ARE consultation incidence is the estimated number of doctor visits for acute respiratory illness per 100,000 inhabitants and week; the underlying data come from the Robert Koch Institute.
Data version Oct 13, 2026 · Forecast issued Oct 13, 2026
Nationwide forecast
- Current season
- Previous seasons
- Forecast (median)
- 50 % range
- 80 % range
Source: Robert Koch Institute; own calculation (forecast)
Show data as a table
| Week | Observed | Median | 50 % range | 80 % range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-W29 | 556 | – | – | – |
| 2026-W30 | 549 | – | – | – |
| 2026-W31 | 484 | – | – | – |
| 2026-W32 | 405 | – | – | – |
| 2026-W33 | 442 | – | – | – |
| 2026-W34 | 442 | – | – | – |
| 2026-W35 | 550 | – | – | – |
| 2026-W36 | 625 | – | – | – |
| 2026-W37 | 845 | – | – | – |
| 2026-W38 | 987 | – | – | – |
| 2026-W39 | 1,223 | – | – | – |
| 2026-W40 | 1,294 | – | – | – |
| 2026-W41 | – | 1,293.4 | 1,174.5 – 1,458.7 | 1,053.7 – 1,667.6 |
| 2026-W42 | – | 1,246.2 | 1,082.2 – 1,462.3 | 965.2 – 1,662.5 |
| 2026-W43 | – | 1,196.2 | 1,015.9 – 1,422.5 | 889.1 – 1,649.4 |
| 2026-W44 | – | 1,275.2 | 1,078.7 – 1,536.3 | 930.3 – 1,773.4 |
In W41 we expect nationwide about 1,290 doctor visits for acute respiratory illness per 100,000 inhabitants. With 80 % probability the value lies between 1,050 and 1,670.
That is about as much as usual for this week.
Index 1.08: ratio of the forecast to the seasonal usual value; 1.00 means usual.
Classification:normal
Classification by the ratio to the usual value: normal below 1.25 times, elevated from 1.25 times, high from 1.75 times. These thresholds are starting values and have not been validated.
Map of the federal states
The colour shows the index for the selected forecast horizon. The same values appear as text in the list next to the map and in the table below it.
Index (1 = usual)
no data
Source: Robert Koch Institute; own calculation (forecast)
Show values as a table
| Federal state | Index and classification |
|---|---|
| Baden-Württemberg | Index 0.85 (normal) |
| Bavaria | Index 0.78 (normal) |
| Berlin | Index 1.01 (normal) |
| Brandenburg | Index 0.80 (normal) |
| Bremen | Index 0.99 (normal) |
| Hamburg | Index 1.01 (normal) |
| Hesse | Index 0.86 (normal) |
| Lower Saxony | Index 0.88 (normal) |
| Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania | Index 0.78 (normal) |
| North Rhine-Westphalia | Index 1.00 (normal) |
| Rhineland-Palatinate | Index 0.75 (normal) |
| Saarland | Index 0.60 (normal) |
| Saxony | Index 1.00 (normal) |
| Saxony-Anhalt | Index 1.07 (normal) |
| Schleswig-Holstein | Index 1.11 (normal) |
| Thuringia | Index 0.93 (normal) |
Federal states
Each federal state has its own forecast page.
- Schleswig-Holsteinnormal80 % range 1,490 to 2,340
- Hamburgnormal80 % range 655 to 1,110
- Lower Saxonynormal80 % range 980 to 1,510
- Bremennormal80 % range 790 to 1,210
- North Rhine-Westphalianormal80 % range 1,310 to 2,020
- Hessenormal80 % range 925 to 1,690
- Rhineland-Palatinatenormal80 % range 730 to 1,360
- Baden-Württembergnormal80 % range 1,140 to 1,740
- Bavarianormal80 % range 1,260 to 1,820
- Saarlandnormal80 % range 650 to 1,220
- Berlinnormal80 % range 870 to 1,430
- Brandenburgnormal80 % range 1,350 to 1,930
- Mecklenburg-Western Pomeranianormal80 % range 1,630 to 2,660
- Saxonynormal80 % range 950 to 1,650
- Saxony-Anhaltnormal80 % range 1,240 to 1,960
- Thuringianormal80 % range 1,020 to 1,770
Wastewater as an early indicator
Treatment plants measure the viral load of SARS-CoV-2, influenza and RSV in wastewater. The measurement does not depend on whether people visit a doctor, so it also helps when practices are closed, for example over Christmas.
The values arrive with up to two weeks of delay and also depend on heavy rain and travel. The Robert Koch Institute does not draw conclusions about severity or incidence from wastewater values.
- Percentile: share of the site’s earlier weekly values that were at most as high as the current value. Levels: low below 50, medium 50 to 80, high above 80. These cut-offs are starting values and have not been validated.
- Sites whose values for the selected pathogen are more than four weeks old are not shown on the map.
- The sites are the centres of their municipalities and are only approximately placed.
Wastewater data up to W40 · Data version Oct 13, 2026
Shape and size show the level; colour only tells the federal states apart. The table below the map lists all sites with a position as text; the list on the right shows the ten highest values.
Level per site
- low percentile (below 50)
- medium percentile (50 to 80)
- high percentile (above 80)
Robert Koch-Institut und Umweltbundesamt, Abwassersurveillance AMELAG, CC BY 4.0; Koordinaten nach GeoNames (CC BY 4.0), Zuordnung über den Ortsnamen, näherungsweise
Show sites as a table
| Site | Percentile and week |
|---|---|
| Altötting | Percentile 36 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Aschaffenburg | Percentile 57 · W40 · medium percentile (50 to 80) |
| Augsburg | Percentile 29 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Bayreuth | Percentile 48 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Berchtesgaden | Percentile 81 · W40 · high percentile (above 80) |
| Berlin Ruhleben | Percentile 56 · W39 · medium percentile (50 to 80) |
| Berlin Schönerlinde | Percentile 59 · W39 · medium percentile (50 to 80) |
| Berlin Waßmannsdorf | Percentile 51 · W39 · medium percentile (50 to 80) |
| Bottrop | Percentile 55 · W40 · medium percentile (50 to 80) |
| Brandenburg an der Havel | Percentile 31 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Braunschweig | Percentile 19 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Bremen | Percentile 21 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Cottbus | Percentile 42 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Dessau | Percentile 1 · W39 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Dinslaken | Percentile 40 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Dortmund-Deusen | Percentile 41 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Dortmund-Scharnhorst | Percentile 40 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Dresden | Percentile 21 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Duisburg | Percentile 39 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Emschermündung | Percentile 40 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Erfurt | Percentile 55 · W40 · medium percentile (50 to 80) |
| Erlangen | Percentile 30 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Frankfurt (Oder) | Percentile 40 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Frankfurt-Griesheim | Percentile 38 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Frankfurt-Niederrad | Percentile 34 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Freising | Percentile 53 · W40 · medium percentile (50 to 80) |
| Gera | Percentile 58 · W40 · medium percentile (50 to 80) |
| Gerwisch | Percentile 16 · W39 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Göttingen | Percentile 23 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Hagen | Percentile 73 · W40 · medium percentile (50 to 80) |
| Halle (Saale) | Percentile 7 · W39 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Hamburg 01 | Percentile 34 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Hamburg 02 | Percentile 50 · W40 · medium percentile (50 to 80) |
| Hannover-Gümmerwald | Percentile 20 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Hannover-Herrenhausen | Percentile 20 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Heidelberg | Percentile 24 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Hetlingen | Percentile 20 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Hof | Percentile 37 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Ingolstadt | Percentile 43 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Jena | Percentile 43 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Kaiserslautern | Percentile 22 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Karlsruhe | Percentile 41 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Kassel | Percentile 30 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Kiel | Percentile 31 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Koblenz | Percentile 30 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Köln | Percentile 48 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Leipzig | Percentile 60 · W40 · medium percentile (50 to 80) |
| Mainz | Percentile 20 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Mönchengladbach | Percentile 34 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| München | Percentile 46 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Neu-Ulm | Percentile 47 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Nürnberg | Percentile 39 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Oldenburg | Percentile 25 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Passau | Percentile 47 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Potsdam | Percentile 29 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Regensburg | Percentile 37 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Rostock | Percentile 22 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Saarbrücken | Percentile 47 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Saarlouis | Percentile 52 · W40 · medium percentile (50 to 80) |
| Schwabmünchen | Percentile 22 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Schweinfurt | Percentile 36 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Schwerin | Percentile 24 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Starnberg | Percentile 54 · W40 · medium percentile (50 to 80) |
| Straubing | Percentile 30 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Trier | Percentile 41 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Weiden | Percentile 17 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Wiesbaden-Stadt | Percentile 37 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Wolfsburg | Percentile 31 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Worms | Percentile 41 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
| Zusmarshausen | Percentile 21 · W40 · low percentile (below 50) |
Sites with the highest percentiles
The ten sites with the highest percentile for the selected pathogen; only sites with a current value.
| Site | Federal state | Percentile | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Berchtesgaden | Bavaria | 81 | rising |
| Hagen | North Rhine-Westphalia | 73 | rising |
| Leipzig | Saxony | 60 | rising |
| Berlin Schönerlinde | Berlin | 59 | rising |
| Gera | Thuringia | 58 | rising |
| Aschaffenburg | Bavaria | 57 | rising |
| Berlin Ruhleben | Berlin | 56 | rising |
| Bottrop | North Rhine-Westphalia | 55 | rising |
| Erfurt | Thuringia | 55 | rising |
| Starnberg | Bavaria | 54 | rising |
99 sites are not shown on the map: no measurement in the last four weeks or no known position.
Forecast for your area
Enter your postcode to go directly to the forecast of your federal state. The lookup runs in your browser; your postcode is not transmitted. Only the lookup table is loaded.
Why you can trust the forecast — and why not blindly
In the current evaluation the model had a 34.4 % smaller forecast error (WIS, lower is better) than the calendar-aligned seasonal reference. It is only published with at least 10 % advantage; the model is shipped.
The first untouched evaluation took place under the first protocol. The protocol was amended afterwards; the current figures are a descriptive re-evaluation of the same season, not an independent test. What changed. Note: The evaluation uses today’s corrected data, not the first reported values that were available at the time. Hit rates in day-to-day operation may differ.