Forecast for Bavaria
Data version Oct 13, 2026 · Forecast issued Oct 13, 2026
Doctor visits for acute respiratory illness per 100,000 inhabitants in Bavaria
- Current season
- Previous seasons
- Forecast (median)
- 50 % range
- 80 % range
Source: Robert Koch Institute; own calculation (forecast)
Show data as a table
| Week | Observed | Median | 50 % range | 80 % range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-W29 | 649 | – | – | – |
| 2026-W30 | 636 | – | – | – |
| 2026-W31 | 622 | – | – | – |
| 2026-W32 | 503 | – | – | – |
| 2026-W33 | 416 | – | – | – |
| 2026-W34 | 410 | – | – | – |
| 2026-W35 | 483 | – | – | – |
| 2026-W36 | 492 | – | – | – |
| 2026-W37 | 501 | – | – | – |
| 2026-W38 | 595 | – | – | – |
| 2026-W39 | 904 | – | – | – |
| 2026-W40 | 1,309 | – | – | – |
| 2026-W41 | – | 1,477.5 | 1,357.8 – 1,636.8 | 1,255.4 – 1,816.2 |
| 2026-W42 | – | 1,541.3 | 1,411.6 – 1,720 | 1,261.8 – 1,896 |
| 2026-W43 | – | 1,583 | 1,382.1 – 1,779.6 | 1,223.8 – 1,970 |
| 2026-W44 | – | 1,583.7 | 1,340 – 1,802.5 | 1,127.2 – 1,948.3 |
The four forecast weeks
| Weeks ahead | Target week | Median | 50 % range | 80 % range | Index | Classification |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | W41 | 1,480 | 1,360 – 1,640 | 1,260 – 1,820 | 0.78 | normal |
| 2 | W42 | 1,540 | 1,410 – 1,720 | 1,260 – 1,900 | 0.79 | normal |
| 3 | W43 | 1,580 | 1,380 – 1,780 | 1,220 – 1,970 | 0.88 | normal |
| 4 | W44 | 1,580 | 1,340 – 1,800 | 1,130 – 1,950 | 0.87 | normal |
Wastewater as an early indicator
The viral load of SARS-CoV-2, influenza and RSV is measured in treatment plants, regardless of whether people visit a doctor. The values arrive with up to two weeks of delay. The Robert Koch Institute does not draw conclusions about severity or incidence from them.
- Percentile: share of the site’s earlier weekly values that were at most as high as the current value.
- Values more than four weeks old are marked as outdated.
| Site | Pathogen | Week | Viral load (normalised) | Percentile | Trend | History |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Altötting | SARS-CoV-2 | W40 | 17,600 | 36 | falling | |
| Altötting | Influenza | W40 | 1,751 | 8 | falling | |
| Altötting | RSV | W40 | 876 | 7 | falling | |
| Aschaffenburg | SARS-CoV-2 | W40 | 36,600 | 57 | rising | |
| Aschaffenburg | Influenza | W40 | 1,522 | 8 | falling | |
| Aschaffenburg | RSV | W40 | 761 | 12 | falling | |
| Augsburg | SARS-CoV-2 | W40 | 11,600 | 29 | rising | |
| Augsburg | Influenza | W40 | 1,261 | 2 | falling | |
| Augsburg | RSV | W40 | 630 | 2 | falling | |
| Bad Reichenhall | SARS-CoV-2 | W51 (outdated) | – | – | ||
| Bad Reichenhall | Influenza | W51 (outdated) | – | – | ||
| Bad Reichenhall | RSV | W51 (outdated) | – | – | ||
| Bayreuth | SARS-CoV-2 | W40 | 52,700 | 48 | rising | |
| Bayreuth | Influenza | W40 | 3,202 | 56 | falling | |
| Bayreuth | RSV | W40 | 723 | 7 | falling | |
| Berchtesgaden | SARS-CoV-2 | W40 | 135,000 | 81 | rising | |
| Berchtesgaden | Influenza | W40 | 5,140 | 70 | rising | |
| Berchtesgaden | RSV | W40 | 1,000 | 27 | falling | |
| Ebersberg | SARS-CoV-2 | W51 (outdated) | – | – | ||
| Ebersberg | Influenza | W51 (outdated) | – | – | ||
| Ebersberg | RSV | W51 (outdated) | – | – | ||
| Erlangen | SARS-CoV-2 | W40 | 24,100 | 30 | rising | |
| Erlangen | Influenza | W40 | 1,435 | 4 | falling | |
| Erlangen | RSV | W40 | 717 | 8 | falling | |
| Freilassing | SARS-CoV-2 | W51 (outdated) | – | – | ||
| Freilassing | Influenza | W51 (outdated) | – | – | ||
| Freilassing | RSV | W51 (outdated) | – | – | ||
| Freising | SARS-CoV-2 | W40 | 65,300 | 53 | rising | |
| Freising | Influenza | W40 | 3,980 | 61 | falling | |
| Freising | RSV | W40 | 882 | 5 | falling | |
| Glonn | SARS-CoV-2 | W51 (outdated) | – | – | ||
| Glonn | Influenza | W51 (outdated) | – | – | ||
| Glonn | RSV | W51 (outdated) | – | – | ||
| Grafing | SARS-CoV-2 | W51 (outdated) | – | – | ||
| Grafing | Influenza | W51 (outdated) | – | – | ||
| Grafing | RSV | W51 (outdated) | – | – | ||
| Hof | SARS-CoV-2 | W40 | 17,000 | 37 | rising | |
| Hof | Influenza | W40 | 1,201 | 1 | falling | |
| Hof | RSV | W40 | 601 | 1 | falling | |
| Ingolstadt | SARS-CoV-2 | W40 | 14,100 | 43 | rising | |
| Ingolstadt | Influenza | W40 | 3,503 | 63 | rising | |
| Ingolstadt | RSV | W40 | 632 | 5 | falling | |
| Königsbrunn | SARS-CoV-2 | W51 (outdated) | – | – | ||
| Königsbrunn | Influenza | W51 (outdated) | – | – | ||
| Königsbrunn | RSV | W51 (outdated) | – | – | ||
| München | SARS-CoV-2 | W40 | 57,200 | 46 | rising | |
| München | Influenza | W40 | 4,559 | 69 | rising | |
| München | RSV | W40 | 929 | 12 | falling | |
| Neu-Ulm | SARS-CoV-2 | W40 | 16,800 | 47 | rising | |
| Neu-Ulm | Influenza | W40 | 1,349 | 5 | unchanged | |
| Neu-Ulm | RSV | W40 | 675 | 7 | unchanged | |
| Nürnberg | SARS-CoV-2 | W40 | 32,900 | 39 | unchanged | |
| Nürnberg | Influenza | W40 | 1,545 | 4 | falling | |
| Nürnberg | RSV | W40 | 772 | 5 | falling | |
| Passau | SARS-CoV-2 | W40 | 22,600 | 47 | rising | |
| Passau | Influenza | W40 | 1,310 | 2 | falling | |
| Passau | RSV | W40 | 655 | 3 | falling | |
| Piding | SARS-CoV-2 | W51 (outdated) | – | – | ||
| Piding | Influenza | W51 (outdated) | – | – | ||
| Piding | RSV | W51 (outdated) | – | – | ||
| Regensburg | SARS-CoV-2 | W40 | 24,500 | 37 | rising | |
| Regensburg | Influenza | W40 | 1,467 | 4 | falling | |
| Regensburg | RSV | W40 | 734 | 5 | falling | |
| Schwabmünchen | SARS-CoV-2 | W40 | 4,490 | 22 | rising | |
| Schwabmünchen | Influenza | W40 | 1,267 | 4 | falling | |
| Schwabmünchen | RSV | W40 | 633 | 5 | falling | |
| Schweinfurt | SARS-CoV-2 | W40 | 23,000 | 36 | rising | |
| Schweinfurt | Influenza | W40 | 1,614 | 12 | falling | |
| Schweinfurt | RSV | W40 | 807 | 13 | falling | |
| Stadtbergen | SARS-CoV-2 | W51 (outdated) | – | – | ||
| Stadtbergen | Influenza | W51 (outdated) | – | – | ||
| Stadtbergen | RSV | W51 (outdated) | – | – | ||
| Starnberg | SARS-CoV-2 | W40 | 44,500 | 54 | rising | |
| Starnberg | Influenza | W40 | 1,561 | 2 | unchanged | |
| Starnberg | RSV | W40 | 781 | 2 | unchanged | |
| Straubing | SARS-CoV-2 | W40 | 12,900 | 30 | rising | |
| Straubing | Influenza | W40 | 1,466 | 2 | falling | |
| Straubing | RSV | W40 | 733 | 1 | falling | |
| Teisendorf | SARS-CoV-2 | W51 (outdated) | – | – | ||
| Teisendorf | Influenza | W51 (outdated) | – | – | ||
| Teisendorf | RSV | W51 (outdated) | – | – | ||
| Weiden | SARS-CoV-2 | W40 | 6,500 | 17 | rising | |
| Weiden | Influenza | W40 | 5,089 | 72 | rising | |
| Weiden | RSV | W40 | 675 | 2 | falling | |
| Zusmarshausen | SARS-CoV-2 | W40 | 2,000 | 21 | unchanged | |
| Zusmarshausen | Influenza | W40 | 1,399 | 8 | falling | |
| Zusmarshausen | RSV | W40 | 699 | 9 | falling |
Robert Koch-Institut und Umweltbundesamt, Abwassersurveillance AMELAG, CC BY 4.0; Koordinaten nach GeoNames (CC BY 4.0), Zuordnung über den Ortsnamen, näherungsweise
What does this mean?
In W41 we expect in Bavaria about 1,480 doctor visits for acute respiratory illness per 100,000 inhabitants. With 80 % probability the value lies between 1,260 and 1,820.
That is 0.78 times the usual value for this week.
Classification:normal
Classification against the usual pattern
The index is the median of the forecast divided by the usual value of the same calendar week in earlier years; 1.00 means usual. From 1.25 times the usual value the activity counts as elevated, from 1.75 times as high. These thresholds are starting values and have not been validated.
For federal states, ARE data only exist from 2022-W40 onwards. There are therefore only a few winters to compare with, and the uncertainty is correspondingly large.
Quelle: Robert Koch-Institut, Umweltbundesamt, Deutscher Wetterdienst; eigene Berechnung (Bearbeitung). Nicht vom RKI, DWD oder anderen genannten Stellen erstellt oder gebilligt.